The third quarter of 2025 began with President Trump signing a sweeping reconciliation bill into law on Independence Day, fondly known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” The bill included an amalgamation of provisions and most notably extended the tax changes implemented under Trump’s first term. The quarter ended with a looming government shutdown. Fiscal policy aside, the third quarter also brought a renewed focus on monetary policy, fresh off the first interest rate cut since December 2024. Barring a disruption from a government shutdown, markets have sights set on the September jobs report, which will contain crucial data that will inform the Federal Reserve on the health of the labor market as they consider how quickly to unwind their restrictive policy stance. Yet again, the third quarter was one dominated by policy and its many complexities and uncertainties.
While policy played a key role in shaping market dynamics, the quarter was rounded out by numerous other developments:
- Equity markets continued their resilience and run-up from the previous quarter, hitting fresh records along the way with the S&P 500 closing above 6,600 for the first time in September. Importantly, equities witnessed a broadening out, with small cap and international companies continuing to perform well with help from domestic interest rate cuts and more favorable valuations, respectively.
- Reciprocal tariffs were finally implemented in early August; however, additional duty announcements were made at the end of the quarter on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and certain pieces of furniture, illustrating that tariffs continue to be a pillar of President Trump’s agenda. Threatening this pillar was a federal appeals court finding at the end of August that Trump overstepped his authority in implementing his tariffs, a decision that the Supreme Court will opine on in early November, adding further uncertainty to trade policy.
- Economic growth was one of the many macroeconomic data points impacted by tariffs, with the final reading of Q2 2025 GDP printing at 3.8%, driven by a significant decrease in imports and reversing the first quarter’s surge. While muddied by tariffs, economic growth continues to be an important data point in assessing the health of the U.S. economy as expectations, including from the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections or “Dot Plot,” call for slowing annual growth, below 2%.
- Interest rate cuts were supported by the Federal Open Market Committee, who cut rates by 25-bps in September after months of pressure from the Trump Administration, who continues to undermine the Fed’s independence as a central banking authority. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell termed the most recent cut as a “risk management” decision, citing the difficulties in managing their dual mandate, with future cuts signifying that the pendulum may now be shifting from the inflation to the growth part of their mandate.
- Labor market drama ensued over the quarter not just as a result of downward revisions to annual and monthly jobs-added data, but also through the Trump Administration’s firing of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Data reporting challenges aside, the labor market is showing signs of slowing, and future jobs reports remain crucial yet threatened by funding cuts and a looming government shutdown.
- A historic partnership with Intel was announced by the Trump Administration, including a multi-billion dollar, 10% equity stake in Intel by the U.S. government, adding fuel to the artificial intelligence (AI) fire, including the potential for greater chip manufacturing in the U.S.
The themes of the quarter underscore the importance of finding balance in today’s complex and uncertain environment – whether between potentially conflicting fiscal and monetary policies, between the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, between bullish forces like AI and bearish signals like a cooling labor market, between the dueling parties of the American government, or even within investment portfolios – as markets navigate an economy poised for a variety of outcomes.
Below, this market wrap will provide a high level overview of key trends in capital markets and the economy over the quarter, concluded by a brief commentary of Centura’s outlook as we enter the final three months of 2025.
Markets
Equities – Despite the historically slow summer months, U.S. equity markets performed strongly over the quarter and were buoyed by the Fed’s interest rate cut in September, which prompted major indices – including the Nasdaq-100, Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 – to notch fresh all-time highs in the last month of the quarter. Small cap stocks quietly outperformed their large cap counterparts, supported by the tailwinds of imminent interest rate cuts, investor sentiment shifting away from more expensive parts of the market, and stronger than expected GDP growth. International equities also continued to perform well, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets over the quarter, illustrating growing market breadth, which is overall supportive of the broader equity asset class.
Earnings season offered numerous insights, including a relatively cautious stance from businesses over policy uncertainty, macroeconomic data softening, and tariffs. Despite this more cautious stance, earnings grew around 12%, more than doubling initial projections. This growth was driven once again by the Magnificent Seven companies who reaffirmed their AI capex commitments and contributed 52% to overall year-over-year earnings growth. However, valuations in this part of the market remain rich and markets concentrated, with the Mag Seven representing around 32% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.
Bonds – Similar to recent quarters, fixed income markets continued to exhibit tight spreads, with high yield spreads currently around 280 bps, well below the 10-year average of 420 bps, making this asset class less attractive for investors. The Treasury yield curve experienced a flattening in the short-end of the curve, thanks to the Fed and their interest rate cut, and longer-term yields remained similar to where they started the quarter, with the 10-year hovering around 4.20%. Steeper than the Treasury yield curve was the municipal yield curve, and while absolute returns in this asset class were meager over the quarter, the slope of the municipal curve has not been this steep since 2015, offering investors attractive yields, particularly in the medium- to longer-end of the curve. Importantly, the bond market continues to be a sounding board for the Trump Administration, i.e., any policy change that causes an aggressive reaction from fixed income markets is unlikely to stick around for long.

Source:YCharts. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index was used as a proxy for Bonds; the Bloomberg US High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index was used as a proxy for High Yield Bonds; the Russell 2000 Index was used as a proxy for Small Cap Equities; and the MSCI ACWI Ex USA Index was used as a proxy for International Equities. All returns are based on total return levels as of 9/30/2025.
Currencies – The U.S. dollar continued its decline over the quarter, after posting its worst first half performance since 1973 to end the second quarter. It is expected that pressures will continue to weigh on the dollar, including U.S. debt concerns, expectations for further interest rate cuts, and macro data softness. While the dollar is experiencing weakness, its status as the reserve currency remains intact. Over the quarter, stablecoins saw important developments related to regulation with the passage of the GENIUS Act in July, which provided additional clarity surrounding a regulatory framework for digital assets.
Commodities – With the decline in the U.S. dollar and the Fed shifting to interest rate cuts, safe haven assets experienced renewed interest from investors, including gold, which reached yet another record-high price to close out September and extended its bull market run. Other precious metals, including silver and platinum, also hit record highs over the quarter. Oil prices marginally declined over the quarter as supply increased in the market, putting pressure on profits of major oil companies.
The Economy
While markets demonstrated resilience, the macroeconomic data exhibited softness over the quarter, ultimately prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The main culprit behind the interest rate cut was cooling in the labor market data, which occurred alongside still-elevated inflation and robust GDP growth, illustrating how the Fed’s dual mandate – stable prices and maximum employment – came at odds with one another over the quarter. This confluence of macroeconomic trends created challenges for the Fed over how quickly it should unwind its restrictive monetary policy stance, and these conditions are expected to persist moving forward.
Labor Market – Looking at the labor market, the July jobs reports, published in early August, stunned investors when nonfarm payrolls (73,000) fell well below expectations (100,000) and data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The revised figures showed nonfarm payrolls declined in June, marking the first negative change since 2020. Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls were also published in September for the year ending in March 2025, with jobs added adjusted downward from initial estimates by 911,000. These trends point to a weaker labor market than initially thought and contributed to volatility over the quarter as markets began to price in interest rate cuts.
Importantly, the unemployment rate remained steady over the quarter, hovering around 4.2%, and layoffs have not picked up substantially, implying that companies have been slow to both hire and fire. Additionally, changing immigration policies are likely contributing to the slowing data as the Trump Administration cracks down on unauthorized immigrants. These factors support the notion that while the labor market is weakening, it is not deteriorating. Given some of the softness already seen and felt in the labor market, however, the conditions are ripe for the scales to tip should additional weakness emerge. This heightened risk makes the Fed’s job in supporting the economy and the growth side of their mandate an even more important balancing act in the current environment.

Muddying the labor market data is increased skepticism surrounding the BLS’s reporting of jobs data, which prompted President Trump to controversially fire the commissioner of the BLS after the July jobs report. Challenges in the reporting of labor market data are valid – budget constraints with agencies like the BLS as well as longer response times from companies reporting payroll data can lead to greater revisions in the jobs data, like what occurred with the July report. Surveying other labor market reports, including from sources like ADP, can help paint a more holistic picture of the labor market.
Any disruptions to the publication of labor market reports, whether due to data reporting issues or even a government shutdown, is likely to spur market volatility, given the significance of this data in assessing the health of the economy and driving monetary policy decisions.
Inflation – Inflation increased marginally over the quarter and remains above the Fed’s 2% target as tariffs wreak havoc on supply chains and shelter inflation remains problematic. The latest data in August shows headline CPI and PCE inflation measures at 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. Core CPI and PCE inflation is marginally higher at 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively. These increases have been in-line with expectations and have not prompted major market reactions; however, the full impact of tariffs has likely not been felt, meaning inflation could tick higher in the coming months as these tariff-induced price increases continue to trickle through the system.

With the Fed cutting interest rates to stimulate the labor market and with tariffs still at play, worries are mounting that inflation could stick around for longer, highlighting the importance for the Fed to strike the right balance.
Economic Growth – GDP growth did a 180 in Q2, growing 3.8% after contracting 0.6% in Q1, but both quarters were muddled by tariffs. After seeing a surge in imports in the first quarter to get ahead of impending tariffs, the second quarter saw a major drop in imports, the largest contributor to the overall GDP figure in Q2. Consumer spending was relatively strong but was offset by a decline in investment in the second quarter print.

Source Link: BEA
While the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP print signals continued economic growth, markets know this data was skewed by tariffs, putting greater emphasis on future quarterly growth data for a more accurate assessment of economic health. As of quarter-end, the Atlanta Fed is projecting Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.8%, with more accurate readings expected as the quarter progresses.
Robust GDP growth makes the Fed’s job more difficult as interest rate cuts are typically carried out to help stimulate a struggling economy. With the U.S. economy continuing to hum along, it may make the Fed hard-pressed to cut rates unless the labor market experiences further weakness.
The Fed – All of these macroeconomic factors are causing the Fed to walk a tightrope as they attempt to balance their dual mandate. With trends in GDP growth and inflation conflicting with those in the labor market, the Fed must manage the path forward carefully, meaning every data point will be a crucial input to their decision-making.
If the Fed’s job was not hard enough over the quarter, they also sustained immense pressure from the Trump Administration to cut interest rates. The success of the Fed and their monetary policy lies in their independent decision-making, which can only occur when it is removed from politics.
Centura’s Outlook
Across our portfolios, we continue to maintain balanced allocations in line with our long-term targets. We are favoring high quality parts of the market and diversification across asset classes, both public and private. Moving into year-end, there are a multitude of scenarios that could play out, demonstrating the importance of carefully balancing today’s set of opportunities against their respective risks and further supporting our current positioning.
On the risk front, the labor market remains a crucial factor not only for the health of the American economy, but also for prospects of further rate cuts. As of quarter-end, markets are currently expecting two more 25-bps cuts, and this will be highly dependent on not just jobs data, but inflation and GDP growth data as well. Whether or not this data can be published remains a separate issue as markets digest an impending government shutdown at the end of the quarter, which could cause publication delays and consequently force a pause in interest rate reductions. The Fed meets twice through year-end, in October and December, and volatility is expected to surround these meetings.
Under the hood of the economy, weakness in the consumer, particularly the lower end consumer, remains a concern. Consumer confidence has plummeted in recent months and inflation expectations could be re-anchoring higher. Expectations can become self-fulfilling prophecies, and the Fed will want to manage inflation expectations carefully to prevent these additional inflationary pressures from filtering through the economy.

Fixed income markets remain an important indicator for potential weakness in the consumer, which has started to crop up in places like the auto loan industry, which saw two bankruptcies in September – an auto-parts maker and a subprime auto lender. While the higher-end consumer drives the economy, the lower-end consumer can disrupt the economy in more indirect ways, making the risk of an exogeneous credit event an important factor to consider in the current environment.
On the opportunities front, corporate earnings remain solid and market breadth is returning, with the Magnificent Seven stocks contributing to 45% of the overall returns in the S&P 500, compared to 55% and 63% in 2024 and 2023, respectively. This presents an opportunity for more unloved parts of the market to shine alongside tech names, like what was witnessed with small caps during the third quarter. And while the AI trade continues to prop equity markets up and is likely far from over, concentration risks remain prevalent, supporting the need for a more balanced allocation.

Overall, policy remains a key tenet driving markets, and the Fed must manage a balancing act if they are to successfully support the labor market while combating inflation. The famous adage “don’t fight the Fed” can serve as an important reminder – if the Fed must balance their decision-making, so too should investors.
Now is not the time to make major bets but rather maintain a highly diversified portfolio that can weather a variety of storms. This reminder is even more important today as markets enter October, historically the month with the highest amount of volatility.
Looking ahead, we remain committed to helping you navigate these challenging market conditions. Our team continues to monitor developments closely and stands ready to provide guidance tailored to your specific financial objectives. As always, thank you for your continued confidence and support. If you have questions or concerns, please contact your Centura Wealth advisor.
Additional Sources:
- https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/economic-update/
- https://yardeni.com/charts/magnificent-7/
- https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/august-jobs-report-data-today/card/u-s-economy-lost-nonfarm-jobs-in-june-21sxP6ISCqy31hG9MlIt
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigrants-us-labor-force-trump-census-bureau-data/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/oil-gas-layoff-job-cut-opec-trump-wti.html
- https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2025
- https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines
- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-bankruptcies-show-rising-credit-pain-low-income-households-2025-09-30/
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on the market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability, or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
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